The great pandemic unwind continues
January 25, 2022 by Vivek Kalhans
In this post we trace the performance arc of a group of stocks dubbed “pandemic winners”. We do this through the lens of twenty hedge fund portfolios in Tradewith’s marketplace but also through the evolution of Tradewith Flagship. Please be sure to read the
disclaimer at the end of the post.
2020 was an extraordinary year
It installed the word “pandemic” firmly in the wider public consciousness. It also proved that stock market outcomes are difficult to
predict.
Let us start with March of 2020. The chart below shows the performance of the twenty hedge fund portfolios in Tradewith’s marketplace alongside SPY (S&P 500) and Tradewith Flagship.
Predictably, every portfolio was down. The best performers were
down ~10% while the worst were down more than 30%. Even
S&P 500 was down 12.5%.
But then April came around and this happened.
Most portfolios were up by double digits percentage gains. By April-end, many had recouped losses from March and then some. Within two months many hedge fund portfolios on Tradewith had experienced their
worst and best monthly performance since Sep 2013 when we started tracking them.
Was April a snapback rally?
No. The gains kept coming for all portfolios. But especially for some portfolios, that separated from the pack. Looking at 2020 performance it was clear who the
pandemic winners were:
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2020 Return |
| 1 of 37* |
Coatue 13F Top20 |
109.41% |
| 2 of 37 |
Tiger 13F Top20 |
82.94% |
| 3 of 37 |
Lone Pine 13F Top20 |
58.78% |
These gains are spectacular standalone but even more so when you consider how S&P 500 performed.
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2020 Return |
| 18 of 37 |
SPY 100% |
18.33% |
*
Tradewith’s marketplace tracks 37 portfolios, twenty hedge funds plus sixteen portfolios of index ETFs (one of which is S&P 500) and Tradewith Flagship.
How did Tradewith Flagship do?
Tradewith Flagship was able to ride the coattails of pandemic winners to an excellent 2020 also. Recall that Tradewith Flagship rebalances to the top-ranked** 3 portfolios every quarter-end. Pandemic winners were 9 of the 12 portfolios featuring across the four rebalances of Flagship.
**
top-ranked based on consistency and filtered for resilience
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2020 Return |
| 5 of 37 |
Tradewith Flagship |
52.44% |
2020 was going to be a tough act to follow
After the parabolic moves of 2020, 2021 was always going to be tough going for the pandemic winners. Here is how they fared, eventually, in 2021.
| 2021 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2021 Gain |
| 36 of 37 |
Coatue 13F Top20 |
-11.01% |
| 34 of 37 |
Tiger 13F Top20 |
-8.58% |
| 32 of 37 |
Lone Pine 13F Top20 |
+5.92% |
The most winning of the pandemic winners, Coatue, ranked
second to last in 2021 performance. The other two didn’t fare much better.
Tradewith Flagship rebalances
In 2021, pandemic winners featured only once in the 12 portfolios across the four rebalances. The one time was Coatue in the Dec 31st 2020 rebalance.
Closer look at performance evolution in 2021
Looking at the quarterly performance of Coatue in the chart below gives us an idea on when the pandemic unwind may have started. Barring a strong Q2, all other quarters were negative. But some point in Q4 is when things started to really go south.
This brings us to 2022. We are a week away from end of January but the selloff in pandemic winners has only deepened. As things stand, Jan of 2022 is poised to be worse than Mar 2020 for pandemic winners.
So, what next?
As noted earlier, predicting future stock market outcomes is difficult. Adapting to the present is easier. Tradewith Flagship will continue to adapt to top-ranked portfolios. The next rebalance in mid-Feb will reflect the newest 13-F filings of the currently top-ranked hedge fund portfolios.
Disclaimer:
This blog post is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No guarantee of future performance is being made. Please find further risk disclosures
here.
Hedge Fund portfolio
disclosures
Tradewith Flagship
disclosures
The three chart-topping portfolios of 2022 on Tradewith
January 18, 2022 by Vivek Kalhans
2021 is a wrap and below were the top three gainers for the year:
| 2021 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2021 Gain |
| 1 of 37 |
Glenview 13F Top20 |
41.27% |
| 2 of 37 |
Chilton 13F Top20 |
35.55% |
| 3 of 37 |
Pershing Square 13F Top20 |
33.91% |
What works one year may not work the next:
2021 was different from 2020. The top three gainers of 2020 fared poorly in 2021:
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2021 Rank |
| 1 of 37 |
Coatue 13F Top20 |
36 of 37 |
| 2 of 37 |
Tiger 13F Top20 |
34 of 37 |
| 3 of 37 |
Lone Pine 13F Top20 |
32 of 37 |
Tradewith Flagship was more resilient:
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2021 Rank |
| 5 of 37 |
Tradewith Flagship |
13 of 37 |
Recall that Tradewith Flagship rebalances quarterly to top-ranked three portfolios based on consistency and resilience. It was able to benefit from Coatue in 2020 and Glenview in 2021.
S&P 500 bounced back in 2021
| 2020 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2021 Rank |
| 18 of 37 |
SPY 100% |
6 of 37 |
| 5 of 37 |
Tradewith Flagship |
13 of 37 |
On the basis of most recent 3-year gain (2019 – 2021):
| 2019-2021 Rank |
Portfolio Name |
2019-2021 gain |
| 18 of 37 |
SPY 100% |
99.98% |
| 5 of 37 |
Tradewith Flagship |
132.15% |
Disclaimer:
This blog post is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No guarantee of future performance is being made. Please find further risk disclosures
here.
Hedge Fund portfolio
disclosures
Tradewith Flagship
disclosures
